Fölster om inkomstfördelning i Sverige

"Svenskars livsinkomster är däremot extremt jämnt fördelade. Om bara ytterligare 9 procent av livsinkomsterna omfördelades skulle alla svenskar tjäna exakt lika mycket sett över livet."

Stefan Fölster, "Vänsterns darling går inte att lita på", Expressen 9 april

- eeh?? uträkningarna bakom det?

- Fölsters inlägg kommenteras av Daniel Ankarloo (grym hemsida har han), "Ökad jämlikhet?", på etc.se 12 april

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uppdatering 27 april
Andreas Bergh kommenterar Fölsters inlägg här.

Jag kollade i förra veckan på google scholar efter studier på just skillnaderna mellan gini vid en viss punkt, och livstidsinkomster. Hittade följande.

"This paper uses register data on tax assessed income from 1951 to 1989 for a representative sample of Swedish men in order to compare the distributions of annual income and "lifetime" income. It is found that the dispersion of lifetime income is around 35 to 40 percent lower than typical crosssections of annual income. It is income up to around 30 years of age that mainly explains this discrepancy in the magnitude of dispersions. From the age of 30 until 65 years the correlations between
annual and lifetime income are quite high and the dispersion of annual income is not very much higher than the dispersion of lifetime income."

Anders Björklund, "A comparison between actual distributions of annual and lifetime income: Sweden 1951-89", Review of Income and Wealth nr 4 1993

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"The concern with income distribution has always mainly existed because of a concern with individuals' economic welfare. In recent years, the question has arisen whether the distribution of annual income-the distribution most often studied-is the best proxy for the distribution of economic welfare. Other measures, such as lifetime income, have been proposed instead. The paper starts with a discussion of how to define and measure the distribution of lifetime income. By using a simulation model, which partly consists of estimated functions and partly of tax functions taken directly from tax laws, distributions of lifetime income, variously defined, are then
constructed. These distributions are compared with each other, and with distributions of annual income. The simulations indicate that the distribution of lifetime income is considerably less unequal than the distribution of annual income. Whether inheritances are included or not seems to be of no importance for the inequality of lifetime income. If, on the other hand, we include the value of
leisure time in lifetime income, inequality increases by about 10-15 percent. Distributions of income after tax have Gini coefficients which are approximately 25 percent less than the Ginis for the before-tax distributions. We thus find that the picture of inequality we get is very much dependent on which income concept we use."
"The simulations are thus done for a representative sample of 381 Swedish males born around 1945."
4 olika definitioner av lifetime income:
LB1 = value of leisure time included; before tax
LB2 = value of leisure time excluded; before tax
LA1 = value of leisure time included; after tax
LA2 = value of leisure time excluded; after tax
framräknade lifetime ginis (tabell 2, s 250): LB1 0,138; LB2 0,121; LA1 0,102; LA2 0,089 (är det den sistnämnda siffran som Fölster använder?? Gini på 9. Men detta är ju dock för år 1970 som utgångsår, när inkomstfördelningen var betydligt jämnare än vad den är idag.)
Blomquist gör därefter olika variationer på uträkningarna: varierar antagandena om arbetslivets längd, räntenivåer osv. Livstidsginin blir som högst 16.
en slutsats (s 256): "the inequality of lifetime income is 32-42 percent lower
than the inequality of annual income" (om det håller för idag också när gini i Sverige enligt en beräkning är 29, skulle livstidsgini vara mellan 19,72 och 16,82.)

N.S. Blomquist, "A comparison of distributions of annual and lifetime income: Sweden around 1970",(pdf) Review of Income and Wealth, 1981

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"We apply Haider and Solon’s generalized errors-in-variables model to Swedish income tax data to produce estimates of the association between current and lifetime income. Our estimates demonstrate strong life-cycle patterns. This implies that the widespread use of current income as a proxy for lifetime income leads to inconsistent parameter estimates (i.e., life-cycle bias) even when the proxy is used as the dependent variable. Estimates for comparable cohorts of Swedish and American men demonstrate surprising similarities. There are, however, significant gender and cohort differences in this association that lead to statistically significant and quantitatively meaningful differences in life-cycle biases."

Anders Böhlmark och Matthew J. Lindqvist, "Life-Cycle Variations in the Association between Current and Lifetime Income: Replication and Extension for Sweden", Labor Economics nr 4 2006

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Uppdatering 26 april 2011
Finansdepartementet i Fördelningspolitisk redogörelse, bilaga nr 3 till budgetpropositionen 2006:
"Livsinkomster är mer jämnt fördelade än årsinkomster eftersom det finns en stor inkomströrlighet under livet. Individer som har en låg inkomst vid ett tillfälle kan ha en högre inkomst vid ett senare tillfälle och tvärtom. Inkomstspridningen över livet mätt med Gini-koefficienten är bara hälften av den årliga inkomstspridningen." (s 7)

Enligt Finansdepartementet har ar livstidsginin 0,13, att jamfora med 0,27 for ar 2006.
Redogörelsen kan laddas ner här.