söndag 21 december 2008

Economist för keynesiansk krisbekämpning

Som partisk (socialdemokratisk) men okunnig betraktare är det lite kul att se hur Economist och Financial Times engagerat tar ställning för storskalig keynesianism; penningpolitik räcker inte utan här krävs rejäl kontracyklisk finanspolitik (sägs det). Ledaren i Economist 27 november är ett tydligt exempel:

"a lot of policy [gentemot krisen] has been far too timid. Halting the world economy’s decline will demand something rather bolder than anything seen so far in this crisis.

That means redoubling existing efforts in each of the three traditional areas of policy: bolstering banks; providing greater fiscal stimulus; and cutting interest rates. It also involves using more unorthodox tools, such as interfering directly in credit markets by buying up assets—a route where America’s Federal Reserve has shown the most creativity.
all the bank rescues, credit interventions and looser monetary policy will only get the world so far. The biggest part of Mr Obama’s “jolt”, as he made clear, must be fiscal. When private demand sags so dramatically, the public sector must step in to boost spending, and boldly enough to make a difference. In America, although Mr Obama has refused to give a figure, talk among Democrat bigwigs is of a fiscal boost worth $500 billion-700 billion, or 3-5% of GDP.

So far the only other big country to conjure up sums on this scale is China (and its huge stimulus keeps on having to be revised downward as the figures are checked). Some of the timidity in Europe is explicable: its generous welfare states have more “automatic stabilisers”, such as payouts to unemployed workers, to support economies in recessions than hard-hearted America does. Even so, the Europeans have hardly impressed with their daring."
Economist, "The perils of incrementalism", 27 nov
Economist, "Briefing: Unorthodox economic policies", del 1 om USA, del 2 om Europa, 27 nov
Bloggarna Andreas Bergh och Ekonomistas har problematiserat förslagen om stimulanspolitik på intressant sätt - Torbjörn Becker "Höj a-kassan och sänk inte skatten" 10 dec, Martin Flodén i Fokus 5 dec "Öppna plånboken", Andreas Bergh "Keynes otippade comeback i Sverige" 25 nov. Väldigt läsvärda artiklar allihopa. Läs, och fundera på vilka effekter olika konjunkurpolitiska / stimulansförslag egentligen ger. Se också Dani Rodrik 4 dec "Some unpleasant Keynesian arithmetic", 19 dec, "A proposal: employment-linked tax incentives".

Inga kommentarer: