tisdag 2 juli 2013

Produktivitet och kompensation i industrin i Norden sedan 1970

USA:s Bureau of Labor Statistics tillhandahåller som namnet antyder en massa statistik om arbetsmarknader och närliggande teman. En av deras häftiga serier är International Labor Costs (ILC) som har statistik för produktivitetsutveckling och arbetskraftskostnader för en rad länder sedan 1970. BLS beskriver själva serien så här:
"The International Labor Comparisons (ILC) program adjusts data to a common conceptual framework because direct comparisons of national statistics across countries can be misleading due to differing concepts and methods. ILC data are used to assess U.S. economic and labor market performance relative to that of other countries and to evaluate the competitive position of the United States in increasingly global markets."
På grund av nedskärningar i statsbudgeten ska BLS nu sluta arbeta med ILC-serien, men roligt nog så har organisationen The Conference Board tagit på sig att fortsätta utveckla serien och så tillhandahålla internationellt jämförbar statistik för produktivitet och arbetskraftskostnader.

ILC kan användas för att jämföra utvecklingen mellan produktivitet och kompensation, lite som jag försökte göra i inlägget "Löner och BNP i Sverige 1620-1872", eller som Bailey et al (2012) gör med BNP och medianlön. I diagrammet nedan har jag plottat utvecklingen för produktivitet (definierat som output* per arbetad timme) och real kompensation** per timme i industrin i Sverige, Finland och Danmark sedan 1970. 1970 är index = 100.

Vi ser att produktiviteten i industrin har ökat väldigt kraftigt under perioden: sisådär sexdubblats i Finland, femdubblats i Sverige och mer än tredubblats i Danmark. Också den reala kompensationen har ökat kraftigt, som minst dubblats, i Sverige. Kompensationen har dock inte ökat lika snabbt som produktiviteten.

*BLS förklarar definitionen av output så här: "For recent years, the output measures are real value added in manufacturing, based on national accounts. However, output for Japan prior to 1970 and for the Netherlands prior to 1960 are indexes of industrial production. /.../ The U.S. manufacturing output series used for international comparisons differs from the manufacturing output series that BLS publishes as part of its major sector productivity and costs measures for the United States. The international comparisons program uses a value added output concept, while the major sector series is on a sectoral output basis (the major sector series can be found at http://www.bls.gov/lpc). Sectoral output is gross output less intra-sector sales and transfers. BLS has determined that sectoral output is the correct concept for U.S. measures of manufacturing productivity; however, value added measures have been used for the international comparisons of productivity trends because the data are more readily available and also for technical considerations, such as differences among economies in the extent of vertical integration of industries."
**BLS förklarar variabeln: "Compensation costs relate to all employees in manufacturing and include (1) direct pay and (2) employer social insurance expenditures and labor-related taxes. Direct pay includes all payments made directly to the worker before payroll deductions and consists of two parts: Pay for time worked and directly-paid benefits. Social insurance expenditures refer to the value of social contributions (legally required as well as private and contractual) incurred by employers in order to secure entitlement to social benefits for their employees; these contributions often provide delayed, future income and benefits to employees. Labor-related taxes refer to taxes on payrolls or employment (or reductions to reflect subsidies), even if they do not finance programs that directly benefit workers. /.../ BLS compensation data include nearly all labor costs incurred by employers, but some costs included in the International Labor Office (ILO) definition of total labor costs—such as recruitment, vocational training, and maintenance of company-provided facilities —are not included in the BLS data. The excluded costs amount to no more than two percent of total costs in countries for which data are available."

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