Högre inflationsmål, och ECB-utvärderingar

"The ECB is run by a perverse cult that worships 2.0 percent inflation and is prepared to sacrifice almost all other economic goals to meet this target."

Dean Baker, "Do Not Believe Morning Edition: Spain Did Not Build Up Huge Debt", 23 augusti

Paul Krugman, Kenneth Rogoff och andra tunga typer (ja, kanske främst de två) har de senaste månaderna (och längre tillbaka, för den delen) förespråkat höjda inflationsmål för centralbankerna som policyinstrument för högre tillväxt och mer sysselsättning.

Rebecca Wilder korrelerar ECB:s räntehöjningar med utvecklingar for räntor på statsobligationer för tre eurozonsländer:

från Wilder, "Malicious ECB rate hikes", 23 augusti

Också: Kantoos Economics, "The continued embarrassment that is European monetary policy... economists?", 9 augusti

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Jfr 10 juni, "Inflation, penningpolitik och löneandelen"; 2 juni, "Centralbankers klasskaraktär"; 17 februari 2010 "Diskussion om inflationsmål"

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Uppdatering 5 september
Lars Calmfors är för att höja inflationsmålet i Sverige till 3-4 procent. I en intervju i DN hävdar han att med högre (nominal)ränta och högre inflation i vanliga fall så skulle riksbanken ha större spelrum till kontracyklisk räntepolitik när recessionen kommer. För att inte den högre inflationen ska försämra incitamenten att spara förespråkar Calmfors att den penningpolitiska förändringen kombineras med sänkt skatt på kapitalinkomster.
Johan Schück, "Lars Calmfors: Höj inflationsmålen", DN 5 september

Och:

"In July, 2008, on the eve of the biggest financial crisis in memory, the European Central Bank did something both predictable and stupid: it raised interest rates. The move was predictable because the E.C.B.’s president, Jean-Claude Trichet, was an inflation hawk; he worried about rising oil and food prices and saw a rate hike as a way of tamping them down. But the move was also remarkably ill timed. The crisis was already under way, European economic growth had slowed to a crawl, and within a couple of months the global economy had collapsed, inflation had disappeared, and the E.C.B. was forced to slash interest rates, in an attempt to avert economic disaster. That July rate hike was like kicking the economy when it was down.

One might have thought that the E.C.B. would learn from the experience. No such luck. /.../

The E.C.B.’s failures /.../ are the result not of mere bad judgment but of obsession."

James Surowiecki, "Europe's Big Mistake", The New Yorker 5 september

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Uppdatering 13 september
Charlie Evans, ordförande för Chicago Fed och en av "duvorna" i Feds styrelse, argumenterar för att Fed ska föra en mer aktiv politik så länge som arbetslösheten ligger över 7% och inflationen under 3%. Ett sådant uttalande vore ett alternativ till Feds nuvarande uttalade policy - att hålla realräntan runt 0 de närmsta två åren.
Evans förslag diskuteras av G.I. på Free Exchange: "Should the Fed target unemployment?", 8 september

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Uppdatering 6 oktober.
Nu har Jean-Claude Trichet avgått, och kommer att ersättas av Mario Draghi. FT:s krisblogg har gjort en poll bland expertbedömare om hur väl Trichet skött sitt jobb på en skala 1 - 10.

"Gerard Lyons at Standard Chartered gives him five out of ten:
Jean-Claude Trichet has stuck to the mandate. But he should have taken a far broader view. He missed the crisis and he shouldn’t have raised rates this year

IHS Global Insight’s Howard Archer gives him seven and a half out of ten:
He’s had a . . . difficult hand to play, but he has played it pretty well. The carrot-and-stick approach he’s taken with governments has much to commend it. But the ECB has been far too hawkish."

Uppdatering 7 november
Brad DeLong är inte imponerad av ECB:s brist på intresse för finansiell stabilitet som centralbanksmål.
DeLong, "The ECB's Battle Against Central Banking", Project Syndicate 31 oktober

Uppdatering 28 november
James Surowiecki sågar ECB fullständigt i ett inlägg om den europeiska krisen;

"Plenty of people in Italy and Spain and Greece were irresponsible, and reform is necessary. But destroying the euro in order to teach a lesson is too blunt an instrument: when economies fall apart, it isn’t just the guilty and the feckless who get punished. The E.C.B. is concerned that becoming a lender of last resort could threaten its much prized price stability, but there’s no point in price stability if the euro vanishes as a result. If the E.C.B. isn’t careful, someday we’ll talk about how great a job it did of protecting the euro right out of existence."

Surowiecki, "An Avoidable Crisis", New Yorker 5 december

Uppdatering 18 april 2012
Mike Konczal, "Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Primarily Benefit Finance and Rentiers?", Rortybomb 17 april

Schweiziska skattesmitardeals

Mycket spännande händer med skatteindrivningspolitiken i Europa i dessa dagar - Italien har en kampanj om att skattesmitare är "samhällets parasiter", och både Tyskland och Storbritannien har slutit överenskommelser med Schweiz om att driva in skatt från förmögna tyskar och britter som placerat sina pengar i schweiziska banker för att undkomma skatt i hemlandet.

Tyskland:

"Switzerland and Germany have reached a landmark tax agreement designed to clamp down on tax evasion by German residents with secret Swiss bank accounts.

The deal, which requires Swiss banks to make an advance payment of SFr2bn to the German tax authorities, will give Berlin income from hitherto undeclared accounts at Swiss banks, while allowing those customers to retain their anonymity.

The accord is intended to meet Germany’s desire to close a big tax loophole, while fulfilling Switzerland’s determination to preserve client confidentiality."

Haig Simonian in Zurich and Quentin Peel, "Switzerland agrees tax deal with Berlin", FT 11 aug

Storbriannien:

"The UK and Swiss governments have reached a landmark deal to tax undeclared Swiss bank accounts in a deal hoped to yield as much as £5bn ($8.2bn) for the UK Exchequer.

The agreement, which comes into force in 2013, respects bank secrecy by preserving the anonymity of UK account holders – a key Swiss demand – and follows a similar accord reached with German authorities this month."

Haig Simonian & Norma Cohen, "Swiss tax deal to raise UK revenue", FT 24 aug