Krisuppdatering

"Am overly excited by irony of eurozone using structured finance to work its way out of debt crisis"

FT:s Tracy Alloway på Twitter


27 okt
överenskommelsen klar 4 på morgonen!
http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2011/10/27/emu-summit-leaves-e1000-billion-to-be-raised/#axzz1bnO2uRO5

Haircut
50 % haircut på Grekland. frivillig haircut, IIF har gått med på det (münchau). icke bindande?

"even 50 or 60 per cent haircuts won’t be enough. A 110-120 per cent debt to GDP by 2020 (as suggested in the scenario) remains highly dangerous."
John McDermott, "Greek haircuts and Greek myths - the details", FT Alphaville 21 okt

EFSF blir större
EFSF: "They agreed to increase the firepower of their €440bn bail-out fund by providing “risk insurance” to new bonds issued by struggling eurozone countries – a scheme designed for potential use in Italy – but they did not specify the amount of losses that would be covered by the insurance. Both Ms Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, said it would increase the size of the fund “four or five times”, but a final number could not be calculated because it was unclear how much money was left in the fund. Most analysts estimate about €250bn will remain after the second Greek bail-out, putting the fund’s new firepower at more than €1,000bn."

ECB-pengar ska inte användas till att biffa upp EFSF - Tyskland fick sin vilja igenom (Davies)

"The €1,000bn that has been touted for the fund’s size is, as a result, a guesstimate based on the still-untested ability to multiply a still-unknown asset base by four to five times." (Spiegel 27 okt)

svårt att sälja EFSF-papprena, skrämmande nog:
"The bond from the European financial stability facility will seek to raise €3bn ($4bn) and will be in 10-year bonds rather than a 15-year maturity because of worries over demand, say bankers. A 10-year bond is more likely to attract interest from Asian central banks than a longer maturity.

Bankers familiar with the issue said the EFSF had been considering a €5bn issue. However, the EFSF has denied this, saying it had always sought a €3bn issue.

One banker said: “There is so much uncertainty over the EFSF that it will be much harder to sell than it was earlier in the year, when we saw massive demand from European funds and Asian accounts. Japan and China bought in big size earlier in the year. We are not sure we are going to see that type of demand this week.” /.../

The bond is expected to price at yields of about 3.30 per cent, about 130 basis points over ­Germany, the European market benchmark. This represents a big mark-up since the middle of September, when existing 10-year EFSF bonds were trading at about 2.60 per cent, only 70bp over Germany. /.../

EU heads of state last week outlined two schemes to leverage up the EFSF, which has a firepower of €440bn.

These are a credit enhancement or insurance scheme, ­providing additional credit enhancement for new bonds issued by sovereign states, and a special purpose investment vehicle combining public and private capital to extend loans and buy bonds in the primary and secondary markets.

Barclays Capital, Crédit Agricole and JPMorgan are managing the €3bn offering."

David Oakley, "EFSF bond may see weak demand", FT 31 oktober

Utvärderingar: hur effektivt blir paketet?
en analytiker säger till FT: "Europe is going to continue to muddle through but we won’t know the end-game until a year or two from now, whether we will move towards a full-scale fiscal federation or whether we will move to a breakdown of the euro experiment."
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b4f9d128-004c-1e1-8441-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1bxnW1IS3

münchau tycker inte att detta var det slutgiltiga räddningspaketet:
http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2011/10/27/half-measures-and-wishful-thinking-do-not-a-solution-make/#axzz1bsT99

Marknadernas respons
marknaderna och euron upp i respons på paketet:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2945685a-fde9-11e0-a9db-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1bsOocT15

FT:s krisblogg idag:
"Why are the markets so chipper when informed opinion (see 11.11) largely agrees that the summit failed to deliver any resembling a comprehensive solution to Europe’s economic woes?"

Kate Mackenzie och Joseph Cotterill, "So. Many. Bailout questions", FT Alphaville 27 oktober
Peter Spiegel, "The devil is in the details and the data", FT 27 okt

"The sugar-rush reaction of markets to European summits kicked in early on Thursday, as investors welcomed the news that leaders had reached broad agreement on measures to ease the region’s sovereign debt crisis. "
Richard Milne, "Markets find Greece deal short on detail", FT 27 okt

Italiens lånekostnader rusar i höjden bara en dag efter paketet.
Guy Dinmore, Rachel Sanderson och David Oakley, "Italy's borrowing costs soar at debt sale", FT 28 oktober

Politisk ekonomi
SvD:s Andreas Cervenka ifrågasätter bankräddningspaketet:

"varför ska medborgare överhuvudtaget agera socialtanter till privatägda vinstdrivande företag?

Det är faktiskt en högst berättigad fråga.

Lite siffror:

108 kan jämföras med 134. Så många miljarder euro tjänade Europas banker bara under 2010, enligt en sammanställning från konsultföretaget McKinsey. Efter skatt.

Under åren 2005 till och med 2009 var vinsten sammanlagt 670 miljarder euro.

Det akuta kapitalbehovet på 108 miljarder euro motsvarar alltså mindre än en genomsnittlig årsvinst för dessa bankers aktieägare."

Cervenka, "Dags att visa oss pengarna, banker", 24 okt

PW sågar senaste Greklands-haircuten: "In fact, smoke and mirrors were needed to produce the supposed 21% reduction in the net present value of privately held Greek debt; the actual cut was closer to 5%." Hävdar att tvång behövs denna gång.
P.W., "The long shadow of Greece", Free Exchange 27 oktober

Tillväxtspekulation
Flera röster höjs för att varna om att ett "förlorat decennium" á la Japans 1990-tal kan stå framför delar av Europa.
"Prof Altman is also worried about the lack of attention on growth with nearly all eurozone countries following austerity programmes of varying severity. He invokes the spectre of Japan’s lost decade unless urgent action is taken: “Europe, and specifically Italy and Spain, need to move now to avoid a Japanese-length economic scenario"
Richard Milne, "Euphoria fades in the cold light of day", FT 28 okt

Rebecca Wilder sågar åtstramningspolitiken.
Rebecca Wilder, "The Euro Area Precedent for Policy Failure", the Wilder View 26 oktober

Kash Mansoori, "Liquidity, Solvency and Competitiveness", The Street Light, 25 oktober
Mansoori, "The ECB: Unwilling Saviour",

redan förra helgen överenskommelse om 9 % tier one capital ratio
Alex Barker, Sharlene Goff och Hugh Carnegy, "Bolstering bank capital is elusive target", FT 25 okt

John Cassidy, "European Debt Deal", 27 okt

http://ineteconomics.org/blog/money-view/euro-summit-statement-explained

Krugmans eurosågning

"the euro was an inherently flawed idea that can work only given a strong European economy and a significant degree of inflation, plus open-ended credit to sovereigns facing speculative attack. Yet European elites embraced the notion of economics as morality play, imposing across-the-board austerity, tightening money despite low underlying inflation, and have been too concerned with punishing sinners to notice that everything was going to blow apart without an effective lender of last resort."

Krugman, "Eurodämmerung", 1 november

Devalveringsrace?
Japan och Schweiz pressar ner sina valutor (Schweiz efter sommarens enorma flight to safety)
R.A., "A brief post on competitive devaluation", Free Exchange 31 okt